The “Four Day Conflict” between Pakistan and India, which was triggered by the so-called “Operation Sindoor” and culminated in Pakistan’s operation “Bunyan Marsoos,” has dispelled many speculations. This conflict reveals much about the changing political, strategic, and diplomatic landscape. Firstly, it has left bare the distortion in the Indian mindset and misperception about Pakistan. Blinded by the Hindutva ideology, the BJP government has inculcated warmongering and hyper-nationalistic tendencies in Indian society. The Indian media has normalized the word ‘War’ to an extent that was unthinkable before. The image of Pakistan in Indian society was of a fragile state that had no clue how to defend itself against external aggression.
During an interview with Karan Thapar, Former National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf rightly terms this change in Indian society as a “serious problem in the collective consciousness of India.” To achieve selfish political goals, the Modi-led government has nurtured this poisonous mindset, which has left the democratic and secular spirit of Indian society in tatters. The losses India suffered in this four-day conflict have sparked disillusionment in Indians. Christopher Jaffrelot postulates that the disappointment meted out to Indians was a result of huge ‘unrealistic expectations’ the Indian leadership fostered. He suggests that India should change its view about Pakistan because the latter is a nuclear power with China’s support. Pakistan cannot be wiped out.
Secondly, Pakistan poured cold water on India’s dreams of being a regional hegemon. Pakistan demonstrated exceptional restraint until India crossed the red lines. Striking Pakistan’s airbases, India left Pakistan with no choice. Applying the ‘Compellence Strategy’, India challenged Pakistan’s conventional deterrence as well as its sovereignty. Having delivered a proportionate and calibrated response, Pakistan re-established its conventional deterrence. Hassan Abbas, a prominent professor of International Relations in Washington, DC, holds that he has authentic information that India resorted to a ceasefire following Pakistan’s surprising response.
Once reluctant to intervene in Pakistan-India tensions, what triggered the USA to change its course? In one’s view, the USA might consider that India, being militarily stronger and economically stable, would deal with Pakistan single-handedly. Pakistan left India clueless following its radar jamming capability, air superiority, and precision strikes. Being inept at coping with electronic warfare, India desperately reached out to the USA for a ceasefire. Recently, while hosting Pakistan’s Army Chief and hailing his efforts to avert a nuclear catastrophe, Trump did a great favor to Pakistan’s narrative. Undoubtedly, by foiling Indian attempts to normalize the aggression, Pakistan has set the ‘New Normal’. Therefore, Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal’s words hold water that “Compellence strategy against a nuclear-armed neighbor is inadvisable.”
Thirdly, Pakistan has emerged as an impactful voice on the diplomatic front. The BJP government’s bid to isolate Pakistan by winning the world community’s trust has met with an ignominious end. Attacking Pakistan without any evidence of Pakistan’s culpability and reluctance to hold a neutral international inquiry scuttled India’s standing globally. Needless to say, the Kashmir Issue has been internationalized, if not in policy terms, at least in discourse. Christopher Jaffrelot maintains that Pakistan and India are being seen as equals, adding that Pakistan was vying for this much-needed parity. Furthermore, Pakistan’s appointment as the vice chair of the United Nations Security Council’s Counter-Terrorism Committee has turned Indian efforts to portray Pakistan as a ‘terrorist state’ abortive. Diplomatically, Pakistan’s narrative has garnered more attention so far. However, our government officials and ruling elite should avoid making reckless statements that can mar our narrative.
Lastly, one fact stands out: Pakistan has achieved reasonable mastery over electronic warfare. Pakistan’s radar jamming capability to disrupt the military communication of its belligerent neighbor was a game-changer. The precision with which Pakistan used Chinese technology has sent shockwaves through the Western world. Indian Analyst Pravin Sawhney maintains that Pakistan has an edge in electronic warfare over India. He further opines that the Pak-China nexus has made Pakistan a hard nut to crack. Pakistan is going to purchase J35 fighter jets, which would give Pakistan an upper hand in stealth technology vis-à-vis India. Moreover, Mr. Pravin is of the view that Pakistan is ahead of India in information warfare as well. After shedding light on what the four-day conflict reveals, it would be significant to highlight the lessons to learn.
- Though this conflict has changed the people’s perception of Pakistan’s military, public concerns about political interference need to be addressed properly. Additionally, political stability, the rule of law, and justice are instrumental in gaining international support.
- Placing the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, India set the basis for future war. Diplomatic efforts to restore the treaty while preparing for any aggression are the need of the hour.
- Pakistan’s sincere efforts against militant groups should continue without leaving any soft corners for them.
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