In the murky, gloomy and stagnant political environment, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s scheduled return to Pakistan on 21 October is being viewed as a watershed in the country’s political history. As the first leg of his journey, Mr Sharif left London’s Heathrow Airport on 11 October for Saudi Arabia. He will also visit the UAE before he arrives in Pakistan.
It must have been a difficult decision for the PML-N supremo to make a comeback at a time when the popular wave does not seem to be on his side. The opportunity cost of further delaying the return could, however, be huge and render him politically irrelevant.
Nawaz Sharif is aware of the potential risks he faces on his return as the electorate holds the previous PML-N government responsible for almost 30 percent inflation in the country. The plummeting economic fundamentals have eroded people’s trust in the economic future of the country. Governance will not be a bed of roses for any political party in such a situation. The reforms needed to put the economy back on track are painful, and no future government would dare undertake these reforms unless all political parties agree to a charter of economy for the next 10 years. It is, however, easier said than done. The present political fragmentation does not leave any possibility to bring all political parties to a table for any grand dialogue on the economy.
Here comes the role of the establishment that is extremely vital and necessary for the smooth and productive role of the next government. The PML-N has already lost its political capital to a great extent, and any other term might cause it irreparable damage unless the party enjoys the complete support of the establishment, which alone can help political parties of different shades to reach a consensus on the political and economic roadmap.
Can Nawaz Sharif emerge as a new favourite of the establishment and lead the future political setup? This question intrigues many minds as Shehbaz Sharif, despite all his shortcomings in the last government, seems to be a better choice for the establishment. The Shehbaz Sharif group within the party wants the PML-N supremo to soften his stance toward the establishment. This coincides with the establishment’s desperate need for new allies among political parties in the face of PTI Chairman Imran Khan’s vehement political onslaught since he lost the government in the no-trust move.
Though the 9 May incidents, subsequent Imran Khan’s arrest, and the disintegration of the PTI have deflated the anti-establishment narrative to a great extent, the PTI chairman continues to enjoy a popular wave, which could pose serious challenges for the establishment in the election.
Mr. Khan launched his offensive against the establishment soon after the no-trust move, but the 9 May incidents steered the relationship between them to a point of no return. Therefore, any possible patch-up between the PTI and the establishment is nothing but expecting a miracle, which is unlikely in the near future. The PTI-establishment break-up provided Nawaz Sharif a space to navigate and get closer to the establishment. This provides the Shehbaz Sharif group with a dominant position in the rank and file of the party, particularly in drafting and fine-tuning the future narrative of the PML-N.
It is not that easy for Nawaz Sharif to change the narrative and maintain his grip on the electorate’s imagination simultaneously. The PML-N supremo finds himself between the devil and the deep blue sea as he cannot rely solely on the establishment’s support to meet the challenges he faces on the political front and return to power.
Nawaz Sharif’s predicament, however, does not end here. He faces several legal hurdles, and it is not easy even for a compassionate and benevolent establishment to steer Nawaz Sharif to safe shores so that he can contest the 2024 elections. Both Sharifs are aware of the current political equation, and they both need each other’s support to claim a sizeable chunk of seats at the federal and Punjab levels.
It will perhaps be generally admitted that the PML-N vote bank belongs to Nawaz Sharif, but the party would need the electables and coalition partners’ support to make a significant impact on the political scene. These electables and coalition partners have never been reliable in the past. The Imran Khan government collapsed when the coalition partners distanced themselves in April 2022, pushing Pakistan into an economic mess where it could have defaulted on foreign debt obligations.
The crisis was so deep and persisting that the entire Shehbaz Sharif’s tenure remained focused on just keeping the country afloat. The PML-N had to spend huge political capital to ensure that Pakistan did not meet the fate of Sri Lanka. Efforts to rescue Pakistan pushed millions of people below the poverty line. The skyrocketing cost of living, driven primarily by inflated utility bills and high inflation, squeezed the disposable incomes of the middle class, which ultimately led to the present stagflation in the country.
These multitude of perspectives, including legal, political, and economic, define the political and economic environment in which Nawaz Sharif plans to land in Lahore on 21 October. There must have been a lot of thinking processes within the PML-N to deal with these challenges in such a way that the people do not see any fissures within the party. Nawaz Sharif’s presence will instil the much-needed unity and sense of purpose in the PML-N, which has been divided into different groups during his absence. The most important step is to galvanize the support in the Punjab province as party workers have been confused over the PML-N’s future line of action.
Suppose Nawaz Sharif reaches the finish line of the hurdle race and succeeds in contesting the election in January 2024, as the Election Commission has announced, this would not mean an ultimate victory. Winning the elections and forming a stable government at the Centre would be a litmus test of his over 40-year political career. Though he has held the prime minister’s portfolio thrice in the past, the situation this time is different and more challenging.
People are naturally impatient as they are on the brink of economic disaster. They want immediate results in the shape of improvement in their quality of life. Nawaz Sharif’s address at Minar-e-Pakistan will demonstrate whether he realizes the urgency and speed with which the party needs to move ahead if it wants to remain relevant in the next elections.
