Time is fast running out. That is how former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the incumbent government view the current political imbroglio. The PTI’s sit-in call for 24 November, which envisages PTI supporters to converge to their favorite place, Islamabad and stage a sit-in until the establishment meets the party’s demands, is a natural corollary of the apprehension that any further delay in dealing with a decisive blow to the government would greatly diminish the nuisance value of the party. The PTI understandably takes pride in its street power as its supporters vehemently oblige to any call from the PTI founder, and that too without raising any question.
Somewhere down this thick shield of pride, however, there is a growing frustration that despite this mass appeal, the PTI has failed to steer the course of political events in its favor. It has been effectively sidelined in the power corridors despite massive popular support. Though the PTI’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government has been quite vocal in challenging the federation, its delivery performance leaves much to be desired. Most of the time, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur behaves in a way that is quite unbecoming in his position as chief executive of the province. He made a couple of attempts to besiege the capital in the past to ensure the release of the incarcerated PTI founder, but the law enforcement agencies decisively foiled his attempt, undermining his capacity to deliver even on the issue of the PTI founder’s release.
Politics is a nasty game. When you fail to deliver, people start questioning your intentions. That is why seasoned politicians generally observe silence despite a natural urge to hoodwink the public through hollow slogans. The way Gandapur surreptitiously disappeared during the last protest ahead of the SCO summit in Islamabad created an environment of suspicion and mistrust within the party. No wonder the PTI founder bypassed the entire party infrastructure this time and announced the 24 November protest through his wife, Bushra Imran and sister, Aleema Khan. The subsequent subservience to the decision of the party “boss,” amid rumors that certain party leaders were against any such call in the first place, has raised many questions about the unity within the party ranks.
The PTI founder has explicitly outlined the objectives of the protest as follows: revocation of the 26th amendment; restoration of democracy and the Constitution; return of the public mandate; and release of all “innocent” political workers. All this seems to be a tall order as it is ostensibly based on the premise that the 8 February elections were rigged to install the incumbent government. Though the PTI founder has kept the doors of negotiations open, the government cannot afford to accept either of these demands, which would simply mean the final nail in its coffin.
Does the PTI founder have any implicit objectives under the cover of these explicit demands? What are the points on which he wants to hold negotiations with the establishment? These questions understandably intrigue many minds. It is assumed that the high-profile 190 million pound Al-Qadir trust case involving Imran Khan and his wife, Bushra Imran, is fast heading toward its logical conclusion. Khan is obviously not very comfortable with the proceedings of the case. Without indulging in any attempt to pre-judge the outcome, it is safe to infer that Khan sounds quite apprehensive of the possible judgment in the case.
Khan and his family believe that the PTI leadership has failed to galvanize public support to put enough pressure on the establishment to secure Khan’s release. They are aware that an adroit combination of enormous pressure and skillful negotiations have secured many politicians’ release in the past. Khan is understandably at the zenith of his popularity, but his lieutenants have failed to mount the requisite pressure or hold negotiations to secure his release. This failure has divided the party into two distinct groups — hardliners who want repeated attacks on the capital to ensure the forcible release of Khan; and moderates who want patient negotiations with the establishment to achieve the ultimate objective. The fact that Khan and his family support the former is marginalizing the latter.
Though Khan’s position remains unchallengeable within the party, the 24 November protest will decide which group will have an ultimate say in the PTI. As the PTI leadership has vowed to gather in Islamabad on 24 November and stay there until its demands are met, the government is obviously concerned over the possible scenarios that such a development might result in. There is hardly any restlessness or mobilization of workers in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, or other cities in Punjab Province, but the crowds coming from across the Attock Bridge might be a source of concern for the government. Viewed in this context, Gandapur’s role remains pivotal despite the fact that Imran Khan has assigned the responsibility of supervising the 24 November protest to his wife and sisters.
The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa chief minister continues to enjoy a unique position within the PTI hierarchy. He remains a key player as he enjoys the support of hardliners within the party and is the only person who is in contact with the establishment by virtue of his position. He holds the cards to put the required pressure on and holds talks with the establishment. Imran Khan and his family are perhaps aware of Gandapur’s tight-rope walking and have so far been very kind and sympathetic toward him. The biggest pitfall of being in such a situation is to protect trust and confidence among the popular ranks within the party. The PTI founder’s backing has helped him enjoy a strong position in the province, but this support and backing cannot continue forever. Gandapur is understandably under pressure to deliver as per the expectations of the party’s founder and other leading members.
These fissures within the party are going to face a definitive test on 24 November. Any slight push of mistrust and suspicion can destabilize Gandapur, and he might not continue walking on the tightrope any further. Meanwhile, the government is also aware of the ominous threat that a prolonged successful show in Islamabad can pose to its stability in the future. The establishment is reportedly not happy with the soft approach of the major ruling parties PPP and PML-N, which have been hesitant to openly support the establishment or develop a counter-narrative to neutralize the PTI’s onslaught. Being in the comfort zone over the realization that the PTI-government relations have hit rock bottom, the government sounds overconfident and is not taking the protest seriously. The government seems to be overlooking the fact that if mistrust is brewing within the PTI, a similar uncertainty is taking root in the relations between the government and the establishment.
