They say there is nothing certain in this world but taxes, death and a civil government not finishing its full term in Pakistan. It was thus no surprise when Prime minister Khan was sent packing in April last year and the current joint setup of political parties came into power. Now there is an ongoing tussle between certain judges on one side led by the chief justice and the federal government on the other as to when elections for Punjab assembly should happen. PTI strategy is reliant upon early elections in Punjab before the elections in the national assembly as the government of Punjab will then be able to assist its candidates during national elections. It was for this reason that assemblies were dissolved before their term as it was believed by party leadership on assurances of former chief justice Saqib Nisar and former army chief Bajwa that the current chief justice will be able to deliver elections within ninety days but the matter now seems to have gotten stuck. Indeed historically the Supreme Court has sent elected Prime ministers packing within one day but that was when it had support of the establishment which is not the case as of now.
The establishment had once been fixated on sending the government of Mr. Nawaz Sharif packing and ensuring that Mr. Khan won the general elections in 2018. To achieve these goals first Mr. Nawaz was disqualified for life under article 62 by the then chief justice and later on several tactics were used to give PTI a majority in 2018 general elections. These included arresting 17,000 workers and leaders before the elections, disqualifying 21 candidates one night before polling day, not letting campaigns and advertisements run on national media and manipulating the RTS system. Several independent candidates were also bought using Mr. Jahangir Taren to form the government and judiciary, intelligence services and government machinery was used to silence all critics through cases, arrests, raids and other intimidation tactics. This setup allowed Mr. khan to rule for the next 45 months but eventually like all romances the honey moon period came to an end in April last year and the PTI setup was sent packing first from federal and then from provincial governments as well though the latter was an own goal so to speak from the party’s leadership. The relationship between military and Mr. Khan was spoiled due to the latter’s foreign policy which had alienated most of Pakistan’s traditional allies such as Saudi Arabia, the United States and China. Then army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa had also desired peaceful ties with India and had even arranged a visit from Indian minister Narendra Modi which was cancelled due to the prime minister’s refusal at the last minute setting in motion the events that led to his ouster.
After coming into power in April the current setup has managed to ensure its chances of success are higher in the elections whenever they may happen. It has removed the law allowing overseas voters to vote without visiting their constituency thus ensuring many of them can’t vote as they might not be in country during elections thus hurting vote bank of PTI as a lot of them are its supporters. It has also removed electronic voting machines from being used during elections as PTI had hoped to use them much like RTS was used in 2018. The election commission of Pakistan which is charged with holding of elections is also now on the side of the federal government and thus can be utilized not only for delaying polls but also ensuring that tactics like disqualifying PTI candidates one night before polling day can also be used to ensure it can’t win a majority in federal and provincial assemblies. Furthermore both the provincial and federal interim setups will be of PDM choice since PTI had left the national assembly allowing Raja Riaz a dissident PTI member to become opposition leader with whom the government will consult for establishing caretaker setup. The provincial caretaker setups are already Pro PDM so state machinery at both levels will be available to support its candidates assuming elections happen on same day. The delineations of assembly seats that will be done as per the ongoing census are also a huge factor since as per results so far national assembly seats allotted to Urban centers like Karachi in Sindh will be reduced which are pro PTI and seats allotted to rural areas which are pro PPP will be increased. Similarly seats allotted to Baluchistan are also set to rise whilst those allotted to Punjab and KPK will decrease. This is because the census shows a 9% increase in population of rural Sindh and a 7.8% increase in Baluchistan whilst share of Punjab and KPK in population is showing a decrease and population of urban Sindh is also showing decline as per census.
The last hurdle that now remains is ensuring that elections are held after the retirement of current chief justice since with establishment support gone only certain members in senior judiciary now remain as allies of PTI as per PDM’s belief. Under new Chief justice the government hopes to disqualify Mr. Khan before elections in order to level the playing field. There are also hopes amongst PML-N members that Mr. Nawaz’s disqualification might be removed before holding elections in October but that remains difficult given that it requires a judicial overview and support from establishment that PML-N may simply not have. Even Mr. Khan Disqualification is a low possibility given the military separating from active political interference too passive unlike 2018 but nonetheless these two tasks remain the last desire of the current setup before heading into elections to ensure that the next Prime minister is from PPP or PML-N but not Mr. Khan.
It will become more clear in coming days whether it is PDM that triumphs or PTI in this power struggle but the people as usual are nowhere in the equation, never have been and probably never will be.
- History: A set of lies agreed upon - 02/12/2023
- With great power comes great pension - 10/11/2023
- The Dharma wheel of Pakistan’s politics - 24/09/2023
