After the end of the Long March and saga of army chief appointment, it seems that chairman PTI Imran Khan has played the last card up his sleeve and decided to quit the provincial legislatures where his party holds power. Unable to influence the appointment of the army chief nor able to put enough pressure through public power, Mr. Khan has decided to now force the government to call early national election by being unable to hold by elections on such a large number of constituencies. He believes that the government will not be able to hold so many by elections due to logistical and financial constraints and will instead just resign and hold national and provincial elections at the same time. The federal government however has already announced that should PTI resign from seats, they would just hold elections for the provincial legislature and be done with it. It is simply impossible for the federal government to back down now since they believe they would be able to improve the financial conditions of the country and dole out largesse to ensure electoral victory in 2023. Even now eighty seven billion rupees have already been allotted to MNA’s for carrying out development works in their areas in an attempt to improve the ruling coalition’s chances.
Khan’s decision to dissolve assemblies also doesn’t have clarity at the moment. Firstly he didn’t make it clear as to whether he intends to dissolve assemblies or simply have his party members resign from them. If he only intends to give resignations like in the national assembly then its effect on the government will not be much whereas dissolution of assemblies might create a bigger political crisis. Secondly no timeline has been given as to when this decision will be taken as it seems Mr. Khan has currently not given any deadline by which assemblies have to be dissolved. It is entirely possible that the current political bickering might continue for several months and should it go on for more than three to four months then by elections will be impossible to hold even if assemblies are dissolved. After April 20 no by election can be held since article 224 clause four of the constitution states that “When, except by dissolution of the National Assembly or a Provincial Assembly, a general seat in any such assembly has become vacant not later than 120 days before the term of that assembly is due to expire, an election to fill the seat shall be held within sixty days from the occurrence of the vacancy.” It is also not clear as to whether all the provincial members will be convinced to resign from their seats on Mr. Khan’s order. The PDM government will surely try to convince as many of PTI members not to resign from their seats, though if this materializes will really be a shocking development. Moonis Elahi, son of Punjab’s chief minister Pervaiz Elahi, has already stated that the chief minister will dissolve the assembly should the PTI chairman give the call to do but as of now this may be the least probable scenario. PML-N could also try to move a vote of no confidence against speaker and deputy speaker in Punjab assembly if it can find some support from PTI members and that to will dent the attempted resignations. Whether it does so or not will be clear in the coming few weeks.
It doesn’t appear that the current tactics being utilized by Mr. Khan will have the intended effect since the federal government has already sacrificed a great deal of political capital in order to gain control. However this also doesn’t mean that the PDM has achieved total victory since its popularity has been severely dented especially in Punjab. The collapsing economy coupled with the looming threat of default means that all the blame for the misery of people is falling squarely on the shoulders of PML-N, which in turn is allowing PTI to gain ground in the most important province of Punjab. The restoration of the economy is a major challenge since it doesn’t appear the conditions will be improving even in 2023 due to both external as well as internal factors. Hence it is entirely likely that despite all its attempts the PDM may still face issues in the upcoming elections unless Mr. Khan is barred from contesting them or unless a major part of his party defects.
The PDM has also utilized this time to clear its members from accountability in the various corruption cases going on against them, but it still needs more time for the biggest hurdle of PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif’s return to be cleared ahead of next year’s election. Mr. Nawaz has his own vote bank in Punjab province and his return will help to boost the popularity of PML-N in Punjab as well as help in galvanizing dormant voter base if he himself is present during the election campaign. The rest of PML-N it seems is unable to generate the support necessary to challenge PTI in the elections. The issue of the army chief’s appointment may have gone in the PDM’s favor but the federal government still needs Mr. Nawaz’s return in order to have any chance in 2023 as otherwise it will most probably face electoral defeat like in the recent by-elections.
All in all the political circus that has been on show since March of current year will most likely continue till the time a new government is formed next year. Even after that it will most likely take another twist and then continue in its new form with different players but the same script. As long as actual power stays in the hands of the establishment where it has been since 1947 our political and economic scenario will always remain like a classical Greek tragedy play on repeat.

Khawaja Muhammad Ragheeb-ud-Din
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