Climate Change Chronicles: Insights from Past to Present

09/12/2023

In the late nineteenth century, the idea of global warming was welcomed. As Arrhenius wrote,”By the influence of the increasing percentage of carbonic acid (CO2) in the atmosphere, we may hope to enjoy ages with more equable and better climates, especially as regards the colder regions of the earth”. They viewed global warming as beneficial and believed that it would lead to milder climates, longer growing seasons, and increased agricultural productivity in colder regions. On the other hand, in the early 1970s, climate scientists were predicting a new ice age. During that time, some scientific studies and media reports highlighted a cooling trend in certain regions and proposed the possibility of a future global cooling period.

In fact, Between 1940 and 1970, the Earth actually experienced a cooling period as a result of increased aerosol pollutants from the postwar boom. These pollutants reflect sunlight away from the planet. This concept of pollutants blocking sunlight and cooling the Earth gained traction in the media, such as in a 1974 Time magazine article titled “Another Ice Age?”.

As this temporary cooling concluded, the temperatures continued their upward trend. The early 1980s witnessed a notable surge in global temperatures, with the summer of 1988 standing out as the hottest on record up to that point. This rise drew significant attention from both the media and the public. Later, in 1988, countries around the world joined together to create a group called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The IPCC’s reports provided robust scientific assessments on climate change, raising awareness and prompting international discussions and actions. Additionally, events like severe heat waves, droughts, and other extreme weather occurrences during that period further emphasized the urgency of addressing climate change on a global scale. These factors collectively led to the UNFCCC’s creation and the initiation of COP meetings to address this critical issue. The primary objective was to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent dangerous interference with the climate system.

To achieve this goal, the UNFCCC convenes the COP meetings annually, bringing together world leaders, policymakers, scientists, activists, and stakeholders from across the globe.
This year, from 30 November until 12 December, the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference will be held at Expo City, Dubai. As this COP is going to be hosted by the CEO of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company, fossil fuels are expected to draw the spotlight.

Meanwhile, the parties will also work to build upon recent progress made toward an operational Loss and Damage fund for vulnerable countries and increasing financial support for climate adaptation, especially for the poorest, launch a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation, strengthen the credibility of net-zero targets; and shepherd a global just transition away from fossil fuels that supports the livelihoods of those who rely on the fossil fuel economy.

These conferences have achieved certain milestones so far. The Kyoto Protocol was the first major milestone in this regard, which set binding targets for developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Besides this, it also established an adaptation fund for climate change to minimize the impacts of climate change on developing countries and a compliance committee to enforce compliance with the commitment under the protocol. Another landmark accord was the Paris Agreement, which aimed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees. Signatory nations committed to nationally determined contributions (NDCs) outlining their efforts to mitigate emissions and adapt to climate change.

The United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COP meetings) have undoubtedly been instrumental in highlighting the urgency of climate action and fostering global cooperation. However, their effectiveness has been marred by several failures. For example, Several conferences have struggled to establish and uphold ambitious emission reduction goals, often due to insufficient enforcement mechanisms or political resolve. The implementation of pivotal agreements like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement has been sluggish and inconsistent among nations, with some failing to fulfill commitments, weakening the efficacy of these accords.

Furthermore, financial pledges from developed countries to aid climate adaptation and mitigation in developing nations frequently fall short, which hampers vulnerable regions’ ability to address climate impacts. Conflicting national interests, especially between developed and developing nations, result in political standstills, hindering comprehensive agreements on burden-sharing, financial aid, and technology transfer.

Additionally, industry influence within national delegations sometimes dilutes agreements by prioritizing their own interests, potentially undermining the effectiveness of these conferences.

The urgency of the climate crisis requires sustained and collective efforts. Future UN Climate Change Conferences will need to prioritize enhanced commitments, innovative solutions, and equitable climate action to safeguard the planet for future generations.

In conclusion, the UN Climate Change Conferences serve as critical platforms to catalyze global cooperation, foster dialogue, and drive tangible actions to combat climate change. While progress is evident, continued collaboration and unwavering commitment from all nations remain essential to address this existential threat effectively.