Confirmation bias is a psychological phenomenon proven to exist through many studies and experiments. It’s the human tendency to look for or interpret information in a way that validates our pre-existing beliefs and can even make us disregard any contradictory evidence in the process. It can also make people reluctant to engage in discussions with people who challenge their beliefs; due to this their beliefs are also strengthened over time. A PNAS (The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) study of 376 million Facebook users shows how people even liked to get their news from sources they already agreed with.
Peter Wason who was a cognitive psychologist coined the term confirmation bias in 1960 after he saw the participants in his experiments unconsciously ignored information that could potentially refute the hypothesis they had come up with and only took into account whatever proved them right.
From an evolutionary perspective, the brain has developed a natural inclination to seek out information that supports preconceived notions and beliefs. In a world riddled with uncertainties and dangers, our ancestors relied on quick judgments and pattern recognition to ensure their survival. Embracing beliefs that aligned with their existing worldview provided a sense of certainty and security. Over time, this cognitive shortcut became deeply entrenched within our cognitive processes, acting as a filter through which we perceive and interpret information.
Confirmation bias can lead to a multitude of problems in the modern world like flawed decision-making, forming baseless conclusions, and also hindering intellectual growth. It also skews our perception of reality as it manifests itself in numerous other domains, from politics to personal relationships and if that wasn’t enough it can cause mass delusions or societal polarization, The problem with unverifiable beliefs is that it tempts people to defend them by violent means (witch-hunts and cults that carried out notorious murders are often cited as an example of what societal polarization can lead to). So it’s important for one to learn how to think for themselves and verify what they have been told especially before acting upon it. The result of blindly believing in whatever you’re told is captured perfectly by Voltaire’s (French philosopher) quote” Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities”. He had foreseen the dangers of believing in superstitions that couldn’t be proved and how intolerant it made people towards others with a different opinion because they had no evidence supporting their claims which made them apt to react to skeptics or people who may try to rebut their arguments with rage, anger, or force.
One of the causes is that nowadays, people are often so demoralized to the point where they lose their spirit of inquiry and restrict themselves to what people surrounding them believe. People find it difficult to confront challenges as in doing so their self-esteem is protected and they won’t have to think about how something they believe or value can turn out to be false. These confirmation biases are also amplified because of the echo chamber effect created by social media algorithms, isolating us from opposing viewpoints.
All of this together makes the individual so confident in what they believe which makes them think that everyone else would also come to the same conclusion if they did their research, hence the possibility of an alternative is not considered
Although none of us can be completely immune to this cognitive bias, certain steps can be taken to reduce it so we can maintain our intellectual integrity.
We can start by developing a level of tolerance towards people with opposing opinions and beliefs and engaging in discussions with them without making it our motive to prove them wrong. None of us, thinking alone can consistently come to sound conclusions as mere introspection does not help us avoid cognitive biases and logical fallacies and confirmation bias isn’t even the only cognitive bias we need to be aware of. There are dozens of more cognitive biases which exist that’s why it’s also necessary for us to know how to make use of tools of rationality such as logic, critical thinking, probability, and causal inference.
One of the ways in which we can deal with these problems is getting out of tribe mentality, while it can be argued if tribalism is innate in human nature or not, many of us subscribe to a predetermined way of thinking which makes us feel comfortable in our social circle. In order to think independently and dissent effectively it’s important for the individual to differentiate between self and others and seek out diverse perspectives.
Lastly, we can avoid making a fool out of ourselves by fact-checking and verifying sources as social media often contributes to the perpetuation of irrational beliefs. The astonishing number of people who believe in conspiracy theories like the Illuminati controlling everything, the Earth being flat, Covid being made in labs to control the population, or pseudo-scientific stuff such as psychic healing, supernatural superstitions, or extrasensory perception is downright embarrassing. People who take pleasure in such vanities mark the events where they are fulfilled but events in which they fail are neglected. An argument put forward by the philosopher Karl Popper also known as The Falsification Principle (in one of his most famous works called The Logic of Scientific Discovery) which most scientists today insist that the dividing line between science and non-science (pseudoscience) is that for a hypothesis to be considered scientific, its advocates must deliberately search for evidence that could falsify it and accept it only if it survives. No number of observations he argued can prove a theory to be correct and halts the progress but falsifying it can lead us to look for a theory that better explains the phenomenon.
Dealing with these biases requires more than mere acknowledgment, it demands a conscious and deliberate effort, a dedication to challenging our own beliefs, and a genuine desire to develop a more objective understanding of the world around us.
- The Blinding Force of Confirmation Bias - 10/07/2023
