Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida started 2023 with a tour of G7 countries, including France, Italy, the UK, the US, and Canada. Holding the presidency of the US-centric group for this year, Kishida will host its summit in Hiroshima in May. The trip focused on preparing for the summit, but Kishida also signed several defense deals, highlighting Japan’s ambition to rearm.
Since the end of World War II, Japan’s military power has been limited by its constitution to be strictly defensive. The country renounced the right to settle disputes via armed conflict and ruled out having an army or fighting a war abroad. This has posed limitations on defense spending but also made Japan reliant on the United States for its security.
However, now these limitations are all but defunct, even if they still exist on paper. Tokyo has the well-equipped Japan Self-Defense Forces, effectively a standing defensive army, and has recently pledged to double its defense spending by 2027 and to attain “second strike” capabilities with an eye on both China and North Korea, spurring on a regional arms race.
The move also sets out how Japan is attempting to reassert its own strategic independence with a view to establishing itself again as a military power in its own right, something it has not attempted since the 1940s.
All this, however, brings a new dynamic of danger to Asia. First, in the geographic region of Northeast Asia, Russia and China both see Japan as a potential military opponent and will likely align greater with respect to this dynamic.
Second, Japan’s militarism is escalating an already tense situation with North Korea, which, facing a stronger Tokyo, is motivated to increase its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, finding greater justification to do so.
Third, the sentiment of anti-Japanese nationalism in China will rise, meaning tensions between the two will increase. Finally, despite a common ally to the United States, South Korea may feel militarily dominated or isolated, which will also force the country to arm itself further amid a myriad of challenges.
As such, the rearmament of Japan will have a massively destabilizing effect on Asia, and it’s something Washington is happy to see occurring in order to retain its clout over the region.
